Date: Mon, 21 Apr 2025 10:30:32 -0400

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Date: Mon, 21 Apr 2025 08:11:13 -0400

Look at the power coming from the North.

https://earth.nullschool.net/

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Underground Date: Mon, 21 Apr 2025 07:56:43 -0400

Very windy in gusts followed by dead air, brings back memories. We neede d the rain over the weekend. High seas, and white caps all around.

https://www.wunderground.com/severe/vi/charlotte-amalie

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Date: Fri, 18 Apr 2025 11:46:39 -0400

VERY INTERESTING INFORMATION HERE FOR US TO BE AWARE of

image/webp Dale Destin - 268Weather

ECMWF's AI Weather Forecasts Go Operational: A New Era in Prediction Begins

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By Dale C. S. Destin - at 268Weather on April 18, 2025

By Dale C. S. Destin - Published 18 April 2025 |

In a historic move for global weather forecasting, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has officially launched its Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS) as an operational tool. This is the first AI-powered weather model of its kind to be openly available and fully supported -- and it's now running side-by-side with ECMWF's traditional physics-based system. at gmail.com&encoded_url=aHR0cHM6Ly8yNjh3ZWF0aGVyLndvcmRwcmVzcy5jb20vd3AtY 29udGVudC91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjUvMDQvaW1hZ2UtNS5wbmc&email_id=edb0ffce23041c6 4dd52066cedea1e72"" style="color: rgb(56, 88, 233); display: inline-block;">

PNG image at gmail.com&encoded_url=aHR0cHM6Ly8yNjh3ZWF0aGVyLndvcmRwcmVzcy5jb20vd3AtY 29udGVudC91cGxvYWRzLzIwMjUvMDQvaW1hZ2UtNS5wbmc&email_id=edb0ffce23041c6 4dd52066cedea1e72"" style="color: rgb(56, 88, 233); display: inline-block;"> Image credit: ECMWF (2025), from the article "ECMWF's AI forecasts become operational". Retrieved from at gmail.com&encoded_url=aHR0cHM6Ly8yNjh3ZWF0aGVyLndvcmRwcmVzcy5jb20vYWJvd XQv&email_id=edb0ffce23041c64dd52066cedea1e72"" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener" style="color: rgb(56, 88, 233);">https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2025/ecmwfs-ai- forecasts-become-operational

Why does this matter? Because AI is already outperforming traditional models in some areas -- including tracking tropical cyclones, and it does so with up to 1,000 times less energy use and much faster processing.

What is the AIFS?

The Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System is a machine learning model trained on how the weather has evolved over the past. It uses the same starting data as ECMWF's standard system -- a combination of satellite observations, ship and plane reports, sea buoys, and more -- but instead of running complex physics calculations, it uses AI algorithms to quickly predict how weather will evolve.

Currently, it produces deterministic forecasts (a single, most likely scenario), but ECMWF is already working on rolling out ensemble forecasts (multiple scenarios) in the near future.

Why it's important for the Caribbean

This development is more than just a scientific breakthrough -- it has real-world applications for the Caribbean and small island developing states (SIDS): * Tropical cyclone tracking improvements mean better early warning and planning. * Renewable energy sectors benefit from AI-driven forecasts of sunshine and wind levels. * Marine safety, insurance, shipping, and fisheries sectors can get faster, potentially more accurate information. * Lower energy requirements mean that in the future, countries with limited computing resources may benefit from lighter AI forecasting models.

What's next?

The AIFS will soon expand to include: * Ensemble forecasts for better risk-based decision making. * Sub-seasonal forecasting (weeks ahead). * Potential hybrid models combining physics and AI.

ECMWF sees this AI system not as a replacement, but as a complement to its traditional methods -- allowing users to choose what best suits their needs.

Why it matters for 268Weather followers

As weather prediction continues to evolve, tools like AIFS will help enhance regional capacity to respond to severe weather, climate extremes, and sector-specific needs -- from energy to agriculture and coastal protection. 268Weather will be watching closely as this new AI system grows, especially as we look for innovative tools that can support resilience in the Caribbean. __________________________________________________________________

Forecasting Product Updates | St. Thomas Source. RAINING HERE NOW Date: Thu, 17 Apr 2025 08:13:04 -0400

New TOOLS

PNG image https://stthomassource.com/content/2025/04/16/nhc-deputy-director-shares-hurrica ne-preparedness-tips-and-new-forecasting-product-updates/ __________________________________________________________________

Date: Wed, 16 Apr 2025 19:38:47 -0400

We have to rethink how we gather forecasts to prepare our communities for hurricanes.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/fired-rehired-and-fired-again-noaa-employe es-are-caught-in-a-liminal-state

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Date: Mon, 14 Apr 2025 15:16:27 -0400

We had some serious wind and rain, particularly Saturday. The flooding at the causeway was pretty intense. We opted to drive into town on the bus as our scooter was not going to navigate the wet. On the bus, a massive clap of thunder scared a tourist out of her seat. Everyone's cisterns are full and the gardens are happy. I am happy as I got to try a new spot, Grannie's, for a Bermuda fish sandwich and cod cake image.png __________________________________________________________________

could be enacted immediately | CNN Date: Fri, 11 Apr 2025 18:09:42 -0400

Just in time for storm season.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/11/climate/trump-noaa-budget-cuts/index.html

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Underground Date: Wed, 9 Apr 2025 07:49:10 -0400

Seas up to 9 ft today....be careful

https://www.wunderground.com/severe/vi/charlotte-amalie

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Hurricane Season | St. Thomas Source Date: Sat, 5 Apr 2025 07:46:57 -0400

PNG image https://stthomassource.com/content/2025/04/04/colorado-state-university-predicts -above-normal-2025-atlantic-hurricane-season/ __________________________________________________________________